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How does NBC News ensure accuracy?Īnalysts inspect results and look for irregularities or inconsistencies with past voting behavior. The NEP has continued to adapt its best practices and refine the exit poll. About 100,000 interviews will be conducted.
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To account for the high number of early and absentee voters, the exit poll includes extensive interviews with in-person early voters, as well as telephone surveys of those who mailed in their ballots. In-person Election Day voters will be interviewed as they leave their polling places. It is the only survey measure of real voters, and it is conducted at hundreds of polling places using around 800 interviewers.
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Using proven probability-based sampling methods, the exit poll is a survey of voters conducted as they exit their polling places. What is an exit poll, and why does it matter? The data is supplemented with state and county vote computer feeds and websites, when available. How are votes counted?ĭata reporters across the country talk to local election officials and report raw vote results on a county-by-county basis from the time polls open until they close and long afterward. The NEP licenses data to several news outlets, including Reuters and The New York Times, among others. The NEP works with the consumer research firm Edison Research to collect timely and comprehensive election data on Election Day and in the following days, weeks and months until results are certified by all states. The National Election Pool, or NEP, is a consortium of major news networks - ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC - that pools resources to gather vote data and exit poll data. NBC News is part of the National Election Pool. The Decision Desk will project control of the House for a party based on the House Estimate.
#Election night call plus#
The model then calculates the most probable outcome of the election in the House and an estimate of the probability of error expressed as a number of seats plus or minus. On election night, election analysts examine all the available vote data and adjust the probabilities for each House seat that changes from its pre-election probability. The Decision Desk calculates the probability of a Democratic, Republican or Independent victory in each of the 435 individual House races based on pre-election research. The House Estimate is a projection of the makeup of the U.S. What is the House Estimate, and how will NBC News project control of the chamber? When a party has gained a majority of seats in the Senate, the Decision Desk will project control for that party. Story continues How will NBC News call control of the Senate? Winner: This designation is used for projecting U.S. Projected winner: NBC News has made a projection that a candidate will win the race.Īpparent winner: NBC News has projected that a candidate has won the race, but the results are close enough that the outcome may depend on a potential recount and/or confirmation that the results that have been reported are accurate. The Decision Desk will not use this characterization until we have statistical confidence that the race will be this close. Too close to call: The final margin between the candidates will be less than 5 percentage points. The second is that there is not enough data to determine the margin with certainty. The first is that there might be a significant margin for one of the candidates, but we have not yet met our statistical standards to project the race. Too early to call: This characterization covers two scenarios. Here are the key Decision Desk calls and characterizations our audience can expect to hear from NBC News on election night: What kind of calls and characterizations does the Decision Desk make?
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NBC News will not project a winner in a race until after the last scheduled poll-closing time in a state.